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State of the markets--part II

DH
David H Sorenson
Sat, Mar 28, 2009 11:51 PM

I am a prospective buyer or maybe I should say, a hopeful buyer who is
losing hope by the day. The crash of the markets has certainly given
pause (in more ways than one) to buying what likely would be our final
boat. However, there is another reason we are holding back. Our new
president is proposing a cap and trade carbon tax which will likely
triple fuel prices when enacted. I know that initially the congress has
drug its feet on this. But I fear it is inevitable. $8+ a gallon fuel is
coming. That along with a shrunk portfolio will probably keep me out of
the market for a while, maybe permanently. What is particularly galling
is that this whole cap and trade business is built on the premise of
global warming. That is one of the greatest hoaxes ever foisted on this
country. What is even more depressing is that this will probably bring an
end to power boating as we know it. Im to old to start sail-boating. We
live at too high an latitude for solar powered boats. Maybe I can put a
big wind mill on our boat. That will be cool.
David Sorenson
Duluth, MN


Our detailing supplies really shine. Click now!
http://thirdpartyoffers.juno.com/TGL2141/fc/BLSrjpTNlxMAt7ukERxFlgrAh8ChGEaIbfs2LM9CnbRImOiZYQBcFNRXvJe/

I am a prospective buyer or maybe I should say, a hopeful buyer who is losing hope by the day. The crash of the markets has certainly given pause (in more ways than one) to buying what likely would be our final boat. However, there is another reason we are holding back. Our new president is proposing a cap and trade carbon tax which will likely triple fuel prices when enacted. I know that initially the congress has drug its feet on this. But I fear it is inevitable. $8+ a gallon fuel is coming. That along with a shrunk portfolio will probably keep me out of the market for a while, maybe permanently. What is particularly galling is that this whole cap and trade business is built on the premise of global warming. That is one of the greatest hoaxes ever foisted on this country. What is even more depressing is that this will probably bring an end to power boating as we know it. Im to old to start sail-boating. We live at too high an latitude for solar powered boats. Maybe I can put a big wind mill on our boat. That will be cool. David Sorenson Duluth, MN ____________________________________________________________ Our detailing supplies really shine. Click now! http://thirdpartyoffers.juno.com/TGL2141/fc/BLSrjpTNlxMAt7ukERxFlgrAh8ChGEaIbfs2LM9CnbRImOiZYQBcFNRXvJe/
SH
Scott H.E. Welch
Sun, Mar 29, 2009 2:20 AM

David H Sorenson davidsorenson@juno.com writes:

Our new
president is proposing a cap and trade carbon tax which will likely
triple fuel prices when enacted. I know that initially the congress has
drug its feet on this. But I fear it is inevitable. $8+ a gallon fuel is
coming.

Just for fun, I compared the cost of fuel to the cost of maintaining my boat
for the past 5 years (I track all of my expenses in Quicken, so it's pretty
easy). Fuel costs were roughly 5% of overall expenses. Now, if I cruised full
time I am sure they would be higher, but I'll bet even Dave Cooper's are
still not more than 15 or 20 percent, and he's underway most of the time.

I also remember a professional sailmaker on the list here who detailed quite
convincingly that it was cheaper for him to run a trawler than to maintain a
sailboat.

What I'm saying is that this appears to be une herring rouge, as they say in
France. And if you really want to be efficient and are considering a
sailboat, slow your trawler down to sailboat speeds. At 6 knots (which is a
VERY high average speed for a sailboat) I'm doing 1100 RPM and burning about
3 GPH, and that's for a 100,000 pound boat.

Scott Welch
Product Manager, Open Text Collaboration Solutions Group
www.opentext.com
905 762 6101

"Things turn out best for people who make the best of the way things turn
out." - John Wooden

David H Sorenson <davidsorenson@juno.com> writes: >Our new >president is proposing a cap and trade carbon tax which will likely >triple fuel prices when enacted. I know that initially the congress has >drug its feet on this. But I fear it is inevitable. $8+ a gallon fuel is >coming. Just for fun, I compared the cost of fuel to the cost of maintaining my boat for the past 5 years (I track all of my expenses in Quicken, so it's pretty easy). Fuel costs were roughly 5% of overall expenses. Now, if I cruised full time I am sure they would be higher, but I'll bet even Dave Cooper's are still not more than 15 or 20 percent, and he's underway most of the time. I also remember a professional sailmaker on the list here who detailed quite convincingly that it was cheaper for him to run a trawler than to maintain a sailboat. What I'm saying is that this appears to be une herring rouge, as they say in France. And if you really want to be efficient and are considering a sailboat, slow your trawler down to sailboat speeds. At 6 knots (which is a VERY high average speed for a sailboat) I'm doing 1100 RPM and burning about 3 GPH, and that's for a 100,000 pound boat. Scott Welch Product Manager, Open Text Collaboration Solutions Group www.opentext.com 905 762 6101 "Things turn out best for people who make the best of the way things turn out." - John Wooden
RC
R C Smith Jr
Sun, Mar 29, 2009 3:16 AM

On 3/28/09 10:20 PM, "Scott H.E. Welch" swelch@opentext.com wrote:

At 6 knots...I'm doing 1100 RPM and burning about
3 GPH, and that's for a 100,000 pound boat.

Come on Scott, are you saying that $8 diesel is okay? Your hourly fuel cost
becomes $24...Annapolis to Miami will be $4,000 (or $12,000 for me).  And
the only reason is a 300% tax? Haven't we seen enough disruptive and
expensive government regulation? (Speaking strictly from a trawlering
prospective, of course.)

Bob


Robert Calhoun Smith, Jr.
MV MARY KATHRYN
1977 Hatteras 58 LRC
Lying the JibRoom
Marsh Harbour, Abaco
BAHAMAS

On 3/28/09 10:20 PM, "Scott H.E. Welch" <swelch@opentext.com> wrote: > At 6 knots...I'm doing 1100 RPM and burning about > 3 GPH, and that's for a 100,000 pound boat. Come on Scott, are you saying that $8 diesel is okay? Your hourly fuel cost becomes $24...Annapolis to Miami will be $4,000 (or $12,000 for me). And the only reason is a 300% tax? Haven't we seen enough disruptive and expensive government regulation? (Speaking strictly from a trawlering prospective, of course.) Bob _________________________ Robert Calhoun Smith, Jr. MV MARY KATHRYN 1977 Hatteras 58 LRC Lying the JibRoom Marsh Harbour, Abaco BAHAMAS
2
2elnav@netbistro.com
Sun, Mar 29, 2009 4:35 AM

David wrote:

What is even more depressing is that this will probably bring an
end to power boating as we know it. Im to old to start sail-boating. We
live at too high an latitude for solar powered boats. Maybe I can put a
big wind mill on our boat. That will be cool.
David Sorenson
Duluth, MN

REPLY
David and others hoping to go cruising in the future.
It is obvious from  numerous posts on this and other forums; not to
mention countless articles in magazines that cruising in a trawler is
about much more than simply motoring from point A to B. Just look at
Skinwalkers logs.

The comment about slowing down to 6 knots is right on target. Yes  it is
true that boating as we knew it in the past is likely to disappear.
Perhaps the biggest visible change will be the absence of many Sea Ray and
Sportsfishing boats racing about dragging huge wakes. Is that a loss?
<VBG>

In the UK there are entire fleets of  60 - 70 foot long  boats being
powered by 40 - 70 HP engines. They are called "narrow boats" and are
specifically  designed for  transiting the narrow canals that criss cross
England and also much of of Europe.
North America is graced with an equally delightful system of rivers and
canals. All of which have speed restrictions. What has to change first, is
the notion of "more power is better". And speed is great!

Whether we like it or not we will be compelled by our pocket books to slow
down and maybe even stop to smell the roses. <smile>

I can see a future wherein old but still solid vintage trawlers are
repowered with hybrid systems that pollute much less and get much greater
milage than present forms. Yes it will mean a lower maximum speed. So
what?
Where is the relevance of express trawlers when anchored in a quiet bay or
tucked up a tranquil creek. If you are retired, who cares if the inland
water way journey takes a few days or so longer.

Most people only think ethanol added to diesel when you talk about
bio-fuel. WHY?  There are other option. Methane for one. Diesel derived
from  waste cooking oil for another. Existing IC engines have been
converted to run on either as well as propane. The stumbling block is the
mind set of the boater, not the technology.

Starting with a fresh sheet of paper there are many more possibilities.
For inshore and especially inland waters, we can  get  much lighter
construction than what we now use. I know a designer who has a well
thought out plan for constructing a hull from wood and epoxy that reduces
weight by 15% over conventional foam cored glass construction. This type
of construction was originally pioneered by New Zealand naval architects
but it never caught on in North America.

Certainly  we will likely see the demise of the floating condo trawler
that is like a snail with the house on it's back. Too heavy to get out of
its own way.  What we will see is more innovation.  Multi hulls  and
composite wood / epoxy  hulls of much lighter weight for same strenght and
size.
We will see  40 - 50 foot boats with much smaller engines (therfore less
thirsty)  with comfortable accomodations and some but not all the usual
amenities.
Consider a Lexus and a Caddilac or a BMW. Very  different sizes and weight
but no less a luxurious interior. Why stick with the dinosaur?
The same kind of changes will take place in the marine world.

Cheers
Arild

David wrote: > What is even more depressing is that this will probably bring an > end to power boating as we know it. Im to old to start sail-boating. We > live at too high an latitude for solar powered boats. Maybe I can put a > big wind mill on our boat. That will be cool. > David Sorenson > Duluth, MN REPLY David and others hoping to go cruising in the future. It is obvious from numerous posts on this and other forums; not to mention countless articles in magazines that cruising in a trawler is about much more than simply motoring from point A to B. Just look at Skinwalkers logs. The comment about slowing down to 6 knots is right on target. Yes it is true that boating as we knew it in the past is likely to disappear. Perhaps the biggest visible change will be the absence of many Sea Ray and Sportsfishing boats racing about dragging huge wakes. Is that a loss? <VBG> In the UK there are entire fleets of 60 - 70 foot long boats being powered by 40 - 70 HP engines. They are called "narrow boats" and are specifically designed for transiting the narrow canals that criss cross England and also much of of Europe. North America is graced with an equally delightful system of rivers and canals. All of which have speed restrictions. What has to change first, is the notion of "more power is better". And speed is great! Whether we like it or not we will be compelled by our pocket books to slow down and maybe even stop to smell the roses. <smile> I can see a future wherein old but still solid vintage trawlers are repowered with hybrid systems that pollute much less and get much greater milage than present forms. Yes it will mean a lower maximum speed. So what? Where is the relevance of express trawlers when anchored in a quiet bay or tucked up a tranquil creek. If you are retired, who cares if the inland water way journey takes a few days or so longer. Most people only think ethanol added to diesel when you talk about bio-fuel. WHY? There are other option. Methane for one. Diesel derived from waste cooking oil for another. Existing IC engines have been converted to run on either as well as propane. The stumbling block is the mind set of the boater, not the technology. Starting with a fresh sheet of paper there are many more possibilities. For inshore and especially inland waters, we can get much lighter construction than what we now use. I know a designer who has a well thought out plan for constructing a hull from wood and epoxy that reduces weight by 15% over conventional foam cored glass construction. This type of construction was originally pioneered by New Zealand naval architects but it never caught on in North America. Certainly we will likely see the demise of the floating condo trawler that is like a snail with the house on it's back. Too heavy to get out of its own way. What we will see is more innovation. Multi hulls and composite wood / epoxy hulls of much lighter weight for same strenght and size. We will see 40 - 50 foot boats with much smaller engines (therfore less thirsty) with comfortable accomodations and some but not all the usual amenities. Consider a Lexus and a Caddilac or a BMW. Very different sizes and weight but no less a luxurious interior. Why stick with the dinosaur? The same kind of changes will take place in the marine world. Cheers Arild
2
2elnav@netbistro.com
Sun, Mar 29, 2009 4:52 AM

Robert Calhoun Smith, Jr wrote:
Come on Scott, are you saying that $8 diesel is okay? Your hourly fuel
cost becomes $24...Annapolis to Miami will be $4,000 (or $12,000 for

me).  And the only reason is a 300% tax?

Bob

REPLY
Bob, fuel pricing is something we have little control over and this forum
is not the appropriate venue to effect political changes even if that
would ease your pocket book pains.  ( my condolences BTW)

What we can do is control how we cope with it,

Mark Ritcher of this list has amply illustrated one way to cope. Take a
constructive write-off hull and rebuild it with suitable accomodations and
powered by a sensible power plant of least proportions to move at hull
speed.
There are already many NA ready willing and able to design fuel efficient
designs for trawlers. Just to name three that first come to mind. Michael
Kasten, George Beuhler and Tad Roberts.  All of them have elegant, fuel
efficient designs that are being built right now, to the best standards we
have come to expect from Grand Banks, Marine Trader and so on.

We already have the technology. What is missing is the will power and mind
set.

Arild

> Robert Calhoun Smith, Jr wrote: > Come on Scott, are you saying that $8 diesel is okay? Your hourly fuel > cost becomes $24...Annapolis to Miami will be $4,000 (or $12,000 for me). And the only reason is a 300% tax? > Bob REPLY Bob, fuel pricing is something we have little control over and this forum is not the appropriate venue to effect political changes even if that would ease your pocket book pains. ( my condolences BTW) What we can do is control how we cope with it, Mark Ritcher of this list has amply illustrated one way to cope. Take a constructive write-off hull and rebuild it with suitable accomodations and powered by a sensible power plant of least proportions to move at hull speed. There are already many NA ready willing and able to design fuel efficient designs for trawlers. Just to name three that first come to mind. Michael Kasten, George Beuhler and Tad Roberts. All of them have elegant, fuel efficient designs that are being built right now, to the best standards we have come to expect from Grand Banks, Marine Trader and so on. We already have the technology. What is missing is the will power and mind set. Arild
SH
Scott H.E. Welch
Sun, Mar 29, 2009 3:05 PM

R C Smith Jr rcsmith@garrett-smith.com writes:

Come on Scott, are you saying that $8 diesel is okay?

Yes, I am. Indeed, within our lifetime we can certainly expect that it will
go much higher than that.

Your hourly fuel cost
becomes $24...Annapolis to Miami will be $4,000 (or $12,000 for me).  And
the only reason is a 300% tax? Haven't we seen enough disruptive and
expensive government regulation? (Speaking strictly from a trawlering
prospective, of course.)

Then (a) don't go from Annapolis to Miami or (b) get a more efficient boat.
In any event, my point was that fuel is a very small component of the overall
cost of owning any boat. Even at triple the price (which for me would be
about $9.00 per US gallon) fuel would still represent less than 15% of my
overall expenses. This is not even taking into account any depreciation,
which further adds to the total cost of ownership, nor is it taking into
account the opportunity cost of keeping six or seven figures tied up in a
depreciating asset instead of an appreciating investment.

The long and short of it that choosing to own a boat (especially a boat of
the type we on this list own) is a wholly irrational decision. We do it
because we want to, not because it makes economic sense.

Scott Welch
905 762 6101

"Things turn out best for people who make the best of the way things turn
out." - John Wooden

R C Smith Jr <rcsmith@garrett-smith.com> writes: >Come on Scott, are you saying that $8 diesel is okay? Yes, I am. Indeed, within our lifetime we can certainly expect that it will go much higher than that. >Your hourly fuel cost >becomes $24...Annapolis to Miami will be $4,000 (or $12,000 for me). And >the only reason is a 300% tax? Haven't we seen enough disruptive and >expensive government regulation? (Speaking strictly from a trawlering >prospective, of course.) Then (a) don't go from Annapolis to Miami or (b) get a more efficient boat. In any event, my point was that fuel is a very small component of the overall cost of owning any boat. Even at triple the price (which for me would be about $9.00 per US gallon) fuel would still represent less than 15% of my overall expenses. This is not even taking into account any depreciation, which further adds to the total cost of ownership, nor is it taking into account the opportunity cost of keeping six or seven figures tied up in a depreciating asset instead of an appreciating investment. The long and short of it that choosing to own a boat (especially a boat of the type we on this list own) is a wholly irrational decision. We do it because we *want* to, not because it makes economic sense. Scott Welch 905 762 6101 "Things turn out best for people who make the best of the way things turn out." - John Wooden
RC
R C Smith Jr
Mon, Mar 30, 2009 11:24 AM

R C Smith Jr rcsmith@garrett-smith.com writes:
Come on Scott, are you saying that $8 diesel is okay?

On 3/29/09 11:05 AM, "Scott H.E. Welch" swelch@opentext.com wrote:
Yes, I am. Indeed, within our lifetime we can certainly expect that it will
go much higher than that.

I hear you Scott, but inevitably higher diesel fuel cost is not what some of
the experts are predicting. Here is their thinking:

  1. We still have a HUGE amount of oil available to be tapped.

  2. Our ability to tap this oil will continue to be artificially restricted
    by green and/or political interests.

  3. Alternative/renewable fuels will continue to be developed much earlier
    than required due to (2) above and political incentives.

  4. Alternative/renewable fuels then become a significant source of fuel
    where possible (electric cars, nuclear power plants, etc.).

  5. Oil prices drop precipitously as demand drops...while supply remains high
    (comparatively) for many years to come.

I like to fantasize that they are right...and will cheer on the
alternative/renewable fuels lobby!

Finally, Scott, I agree that short trips can be great fun and I do many on
the Chesapeake, but once you get a taste for longer cruises, you become
gluttonous!

Bob


Robert Calhoun Smith, Jr.
MV MARY KATHRYN
1977 Hatteras 58 LRC
Lying the JibRoom
Marsh Harbour, Abaco
BAHAMAS

> R C Smith Jr <rcsmith@garrett-smith.com> writes: > Come on Scott, are you saying that $8 diesel is okay? >> On 3/29/09 11:05 AM, "Scott H.E. Welch" <swelch@opentext.com> wrote: >> Yes, I am. Indeed, within our lifetime we can certainly expect that it will >> go much higher than that. I hear you Scott, but inevitably higher diesel fuel cost is not what some of the experts are predicting. Here is their thinking: 1. We still have a HUGE amount of oil available to be tapped. 2. Our ability to tap this oil will continue to be artificially restricted by green and/or political interests. 3. Alternative/renewable fuels will continue to be developed much earlier than required due to (2) above and political incentives. 4. Alternative/renewable fuels then become a significant source of fuel where possible (electric cars, nuclear power plants, etc.). 5. Oil prices drop precipitously as demand drops...while supply remains high (comparatively) for many years to come. I like to fantasize that they are right...and will cheer on the alternative/renewable fuels lobby! Finally, Scott, I agree that short trips can be great fun and I do many on the Chesapeake, but once you get a taste for longer cruises, you become gluttonous! Bob _________________________ Robert Calhoun Smith, Jr. MV MARY KATHRYN 1977 Hatteras 58 LRC Lying the JibRoom Marsh Harbour, Abaco BAHAMAS
RD
Robert Deering
Mon, Mar 30, 2009 1:45 PM

This month's National Geographic magazine does a really nice summary of the
current state of energy supplies, usage, and development.  It's worth
picking up the next time you're in a news stand.

This month's National Geographic magazine does a really nice summary of the current state of energy supplies, usage, and development. It's worth picking up the next time you're in a news stand.