OT: eBay bidding question
I suspect there are lots of eBay bidders here. I'm looking at something
that I don't understand.
After some discussion here, I was following an auction for an HP 3458A
meter. It is this one:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=250107015204&rd=1&rd=1
It has gone too high for me, but I was looking at how it got there. If
you click on the bid history, it is (as I look at it now) sitting at
$4000, but there are two bidders listed at $4000.
How did two bidders end up listed for placing the same bid amount
($4000) and Bidder 6 with an earlier date is winning over Bidder 8 with
date 3 days later? (I can see why the earlier one wins, if they both had
the same bid but what kind of sequence could create this list?)
I thought Bidder 7 might have had something to do with it but looking at
the list of bids, Bidder 7 is only down the list before bidder 5. Why
didn't Bidder 6 show up until the end?
As I look at that list of bids -- who, when, how much -- my head hurts
trying to make sense of it. Here's a simple starting question... Why
isn't Bidder 1 the first in the list? If he got bumped from the starting
slot, why? What makes Bidder 1's first bid not worth keeping?
Can any of you Mensa-types explain it? Is the algorithm for these bid
lists explained somewhere in the Ebay maze? I've been puzzled by these
lists before, but this one seems a good example of HUH???
The list of bids on this auction could be a moving target, so here's the
bid list I'm looking at (after a lot of work to capture it and make it
look ok)...
Item title: HEWLETT PACKARD HP MULTIMETER 3458A
Time left: 1 day, 16 hours 44 minutes 50 seconds
Only actual bids (not automatic bids generated up to a bidder's
maximum) are shown. Automatic bids may be placed days or hours before a
listing ends. Learn more about bidding
http://pages.ebay.com/help/buy/bidding-ov.html.
*Bidder* Bid Amount Date of bid
Bidder 6 US $4,000.00 Apr-22-07 05:14:15
Bidder 8 US $4,000.00 Apr-25-07 00:49:30
Bidder 5 US $3,000.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:08
Bidder 5 US $2,900.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:00
Bidder 5 US $2,800.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:50
Bidder 5 US $2,700.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:42
Bidder 5 US $2,500.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:32
Bidder 5 US $2,200.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:25
Bidder 7 US $2,050.00 Apr-23-07 00:33:36
Bidder 5 US $2,000.00 Apr-21-07 21:21:05
Bidder 3 US $1,250.50 Apr-21-07 17:19:52
Bidder 4 US $1,111.00 Apr-21-07 17:38:42
Bidder 2 US $559.00 Apr-21-07 16:39:08
Bidder 1 US $365.00 Apr-20-07 21:33:10
Bidder 2 US $250.00 Apr-21-07 16:38:56
Sorry, in advance, for taking us on a tangent. Hope this doesn't get too
out of hand as a thread.
Hi Rex,
It's quite simple when you get used to it.
The list is ordered in bid value, highest at the top.
If two bids are for the same amount, the one that was placed first takes
precedence (and wins if they are at the top at auction end).
This is why bidder 6 is at the top, he bid on the 22nd, before bidder 8
on the 25th. Bidder numbers are time sequential.
The other issue is proxy bidding, Bidder 6's bid would only have shown 1
bid increment (about $10 in this case) above the next lowest bidder
until his limit was reached ($4000). If he had bid $4000.01 (or bidder 8
had bid $3999.99) there would have been no confusion. This is why some
bidders put an odd few pence (cents) at the end of their bid.
HTH.
Robert.
-----Original Message-----
From: time-nuts-bounces@febo.com [mailto:time-nuts-bounces@febo.com] On
Behalf Of Rex
Sent: 26 April 2007 10:11
To: time-nuts@febo.com
Subject: [time-nuts] OT: eBay bidding question
I suspect there are lots of eBay bidders here. I'm looking at something
that I don't understand.
After some discussion here, I was following an auction for an HP 3458A
meter. It is this one:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=250107015204&rd=1&rd=
1
It has gone too high for me, but I was looking at how it got there. If
you click on the bid history, it is (as I look at it now) sitting at
$4000, but there are two bidders listed at $4000.
How did two bidders end up listed for placing the same bid amount
($4000) and Bidder 6 with an earlier date is winning over Bidder 8 with
date 3 days later? (I can see why the earlier one wins, if they both had
the same bid but what kind of sequence could create this list?)
I thought Bidder 7 might have had something to do with it but looking at
the list of bids, Bidder 7 is only down the list before bidder 5. Why
didn't Bidder 6 show up until the end?
As I look at that list of bids -- who, when, how much -- my head hurts
trying to make sense of it. Here's a simple starting question... Why
isn't Bidder 1 the first in the list? If he got bumped from the starting
slot, why? What makes Bidder 1's first bid not worth keeping?
Can any of you Mensa-types explain it? Is the algorithm for these bid
lists explained somewhere in the Ebay maze? I've been puzzled by these
lists before, but this one seems a good example of HUH???
The list of bids on this auction could be a moving target, so here's the
bid list I'm looking at (after a lot of work to capture it and make it
look ok)...
Item title: HEWLETT PACKARD HP MULTIMETER 3458A
Time left: 1 day, 16 hours 44 minutes 50 seconds
Only actual bids (not automatic bids generated up to a bidder's
maximum) are shown. Automatic bids may be placed days or hours before a
listing ends. Learn more about bidding
http://pages.ebay.com/help/buy/bidding-ov.html.
*Bidder* Bid Amount Date of bid
Bidder 6 US $4,000.00 Apr-22-07 05:14:15
Bidder 8 US $4,000.00 Apr-25-07 00:49:30
Bidder 5 US $3,000.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:08
Bidder 5 US $2,900.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:00
Bidder 5 US $2,800.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:50
Bidder 5 US $2,700.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:42
Bidder 5 US $2,500.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:32
Bidder 5 US $2,200.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:25
Bidder 7 US $2,050.00 Apr-23-07 00:33:36
Bidder 5 US $2,000.00 Apr-21-07 21:21:05
Bidder 3 US $1,250.50 Apr-21-07 17:19:52
Bidder 4 US $1,111.00 Apr-21-07 17:38:42
Bidder 2 US $559.00 Apr-21-07 16:39:08
Bidder 1 US $365.00 Apr-20-07 21:33:10
Bidder 2 US $250.00 Apr-21-07 16:38:56
Sorry, in advance, for taking us on a tangent. Hope this doesn't get too
out of hand as a thread.
time-nuts mailing list
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https://www.febo.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/time-nuts
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On Thu, 26 Apr 2007 11:29:38 +0100, "Robert Atkinson"
robert.atkinson@genetix.com wrote:
Hi Rex,
It's quite simple when you get used to it.
The list is ordered in bid value, highest at the top.
If two bids are for the same amount, the one that was placed first takes
precedence (and wins if they are at the top at auction end).
This is why bidder 6 is at the top, he bid on the 22nd, before bidder 8
on the 25th. Bidder numbers are time sequential.
The other issue is proxy bidding, Bidder 6's bid would only have shown 1
bid increment (about $10 in this case) above the next lowest bidder
until his limit was reached ($4000). If he had bid $4000.01 (or bidder 8
had bid $3999.99) there would have been no confusion. This is why some
bidders put an odd few pence (cents) at the end of their bid.
HTH.
Robert.
Yes, I understand the basic principle, but how can we explain the
sequences and what bids remain recorded?
Surely Bidder 1 was alone at the start of bidding. So Bidder 2 outbid
him with a bid of $250 or more. Why did the first bid disappear? Maybe
there was a reserve? Then I guess Bidders 1 and 2 swapped bids. Ok,
those values got saved for some reason. Bidder 3 doesn't show before
bidder 4. Does he become bidder 3 even if he looses to bidder 2? How
come Bidder 6 doesn't show up until the very end? He must have been
involved at some point between bidder 5 on the 21st and bidder 7 on the
23rd. Say bidder 6 had a max bid of 4000 and that's why we see him
winning at the end. Then why does bidder 5 have that string of recorded
bids. Bidder 6 should have won all those bids.
If bidder 8 places a bid with a max of 4000 on the 25th and then bidder
6 responds with another bid of 4000 he wins because he had a lost bid
earlier. That surely can't be. Or bidder 6 places a max bid of 4000
after 3000 from bidder 5 so he is winning with 3010 then bidder 8 bids a
max of 4000. Bidder 6 wins the tie because he has a history. I guess it
could be, but the recorded date of Apr 22 for the 4k bid would be wrong.
Actually I guess this newish way of listing as bidder 1, 2, ... conveys
more information than if it was just user names.
I'm sure there must be a sequence that explains what is listed but I
can't quite see it all.
Can anyone propose a sequence of bids on dates that explains this list
of recorded bids and dates? I guess there must be one but it is evading
me.
*Bidder* Bid Amount Date of bid
Bidder 6 US $4,000.00 Apr-22-07 05:14:15
Bidder 8 US $4,000.00 Apr-25-07 00:49:30
Bidder 5 US $3,000.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:08
Bidder 5 US $2,900.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:00
Bidder 5 US $2,800.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:50
Bidder 5 US $2,700.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:42
Bidder 5 US $2,500.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:32
Bidder 5 US $2,200.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:25
Bidder 7 US $2,050.00 Apr-23-07 00:33:36
Bidder 5 US $2,000.00 Apr-21-07 21:21:05
Bidder 3 US $1,250.50 Apr-21-07 17:19:52
Bidder 4 US $1,111.00 Apr-21-07 17:38:42
Bidder 2 US $559.00 Apr-21-07 16:39:08
Bidder 1 US $365.00 Apr-20-07 21:33:10
Bidder 2 US $250.00 Apr-21-07 16:38:56
Rex -
Robert explained it very well. Glad my computer had a hiccup while I was in
the process of doing so. When I look at the bid list Bidder 1 is still
there. He did not disappear as you say, he was simply outbid by Bidder 2's
second attempt. Bidder 5 could be a shill bidder as he incrementally raised
the price till it got to $3000. When bidder 8 realized his bid was the same
as bidder 6's, after a little deliberation he raised his and is now on top
by the correct bid increment. At this point we do not know bidder 8's
highest bid (known as his proxy bid), and maybe we never will. Maybe he only
bid $4050 exactly to outbid bidder 6. You not only have to see the bid
amounts, you have to look when they were placed also. There is still over a
day to go, so, who knows where it may wind up. So far every bid that you see
is the maximum amount placed by a given bidder at the time shown, except for
bidder 8. Regards - Mike
Mike B. Feher, N4FS
89 Arnold Blvd.
Howell, NJ, 07731
732-886-5960
-----Original Message-----
From: time-nuts-bounces@febo.com [mailto:time-nuts-bounces@febo.com] On
Behalf Of Rex
Sent: Thursday, April 26, 2007 8:23 AM
To: Discussion of precise time and frequency measurement
Subject: Re: [time-nuts] OT: eBay bidding question
On Thu, 26 Apr 2007 11:29:38 +0100, "Robert Atkinson"
robert.atkinson@genetix.com wrote:
Hi Rex,
It's quite simple when you get used to it.
The list is ordered in bid value, highest at the top.
If two bids are for the same amount, the one that was placed first takes
precedence (and wins if they are at the top at auction end).
This is why bidder 6 is at the top, he bid on the 22nd, before bidder 8
on the 25th. Bidder numbers are time sequential.
The other issue is proxy bidding, Bidder 6's bid would only have shown 1
bid increment (about $10 in this case) above the next lowest bidder
until his limit was reached ($4000). If he had bid $4000.01 (or bidder 8
had bid $3999.99) there would have been no confusion. This is why some
bidders put an odd few pence (cents) at the end of their bid.
HTH.
Robert.
Yes, I understand the basic principle, but how can we explain the
sequences and what bids remain recorded?
Surely Bidder 1 was alone at the start of bidding. So Bidder 2 outbid
him with a bid of $250 or more. Why did the first bid disappear? Maybe
there was a reserve? Then I guess Bidders 1 and 2 swapped bids. Ok,
those values got saved for some reason. Bidder 3 doesn't show before
bidder 4. Does he become bidder 3 even if he looses to bidder 2? How
come Bidder 6 doesn't show up until the very end? He must have been
involved at some point between bidder 5 on the 21st and bidder 7 on the
23rd. Say bidder 6 had a max bid of 4000 and that's why we see him
winning at the end. Then why does bidder 5 have that string of recorded
bids. Bidder 6 should have won all those bids.
If bidder 8 places a bid with a max of 4000 on the 25th and then bidder
6 responds with another bid of 4000 he wins because he had a lost bid
earlier. That surely can't be. Or bidder 6 places a max bid of 4000
after 3000 from bidder 5 so he is winning with 3010 then bidder 8 bids a
max of 4000. Bidder 6 wins the tie because he has a history. I guess it
could be, but the recorded date of Apr 22 for the 4k bid would be wrong.
Actually I guess this newish way of listing as bidder 1, 2, ... conveys
more information than if it was just user names.
I'm sure there must be a sequence that explains what is listed but I
can't quite see it all.
Can anyone propose a sequence of bids on dates that explains this list
of recorded bids and dates? I guess there must be one but it is evading
me.
*Bidder* Bid Amount Date of bid
Bidder 6 US $4,000.00 Apr-22-07 05:14:15
Bidder 8 US $4,000.00 Apr-25-07 00:49:30
Bidder 5 US $3,000.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:08
Bidder 5 US $2,900.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:00
Bidder 5 US $2,800.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:50
Bidder 5 US $2,700.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:42
Bidder 5 US $2,500.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:32
Bidder 5 US $2,200.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:25
Bidder 7 US $2,050.00 Apr-23-07 00:33:36
Bidder 5 US $2,000.00 Apr-21-07 21:21:05
Bidder 3 US $1,250.50 Apr-21-07 17:19:52
Bidder 4 US $1,111.00 Apr-21-07 17:38:42
Bidder 2 US $559.00 Apr-21-07 16:39:08
Bidder 1 US $365.00 Apr-20-07 21:33:10
Bidder 2 US $250.00 Apr-21-07 16:38:56
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Some people put the maximum amount they are willing to pay and let it ride.
Others like to bid in smaller amounts (and maybe more impulse bidders).
When you see the bidder numbers out of sequence it is because of the above
reasons. An earlier bidder puts in their max bid, then someone else comes
along and puts in lower prices that do not out-bid the previous person.
When you see two bidder with the same price, it is because that is the max
of the first person's bid, and also the same amount the next person bid. The
earlier bid date wins (if that ever happens to you when bidding, common
sense would say bid $1 more and you would be the current high bidder).
It would probably make more sense if you could sort the columns, that way
you could do it based on date.
Jason
On Thu, 26 Apr 2007 10:35:48 -0500, "Jason Rabel"
jason@extremeoverclocking.com wrote:
Some people put the maximum amount they are willing to pay and let it ride.
Others like to bid in smaller amounts (and maybe more impulse bidders).
And then there are people like me who either manually snipe or use
automatic snipping agents. Sniping is the process of bidding at
literally the last second, timed so that no one else can come back and
out-bid you. Snipping agents, third parties who do the snipping for
you either for free or for a small fee, are generally the best way to
go. You don't have to remember to monitor the end of auction and they
usually have a fatter pipe to the net than you do, though 10MB
dsl/cable pipes have mostly wiped out that advantage.
I use an agent that gets my bid in from 1 to 5 seconds before the
auction closes and only charges the modest fee if the snipe wins. I
very seldom do sleazebay anymore but my overall history shows about an
80% win rate.
For the kind of stuff I'm interested in (couldn't imagine putting 4
Large on an as-is instrument), bidding ahead of the end time simply
runs up the ultimate price. I would frequently get things for the
starting bid. I've observed that many time, nothing happens until
someone finally puts in that starting bid. It's like a red flag in
front of the bull. If that flag manages to not get waved early then
the price usually stays reasonable.
John
John De Armond
See my website for my current email address
http://www.neon-john.com
Cleveland, Occupied TN
All great things are simple and many can be expressed in single words:
Freedom, Justice, Honor, Duty, Mercy, Hope. -Churchill
Mike and Robert,
Thanks for your replies but these bids still don't make sense to me.
First, here are my assumptions.
Every entry in the bid list is the result of some new bid. The winner
and current bid amount is decided based on 3 things:
- the actual maximum bid amount that was already posted by the previous
high bidder, (No other previous bidder can have a higher maximum bid at
that point or they would be at the top of the list.) - the maximum bid amount of the new bid,
- the increment for bidding at this price point.
The winner and the new entry in the bid list will be the lowest amount
that resolves between these three amounts.
Once the list switches to names like bidder 1, bidder 2, the number in
that name seems to be determined by who bid first in this auction.
Now I'll post some comments in Mike's reply below.
On Thu, 26 Apr 2007 09:00:36 -0400, "Mike Feher" mfeher@eozinc.com
wrote:
Rex -
Robert explained it very well. Glad my computer had a hiccup while I was in
the process of doing so. When I look at the bid list Bidder 1 is still
there. He did not disappear as you say, he was simply outbid by Bidder 2's
second attempt.
Let me try again. Bidder 1 gets the name bidder 1 by placing the first
bid in this auction. Seems to me he would have been high bidder in the
list of only one bidders and should therefore have the very first bottom
entry in the list of bids.
I guess the explanation might be that bidder 1 placed a bid below $250
and the minimum reserve price was $250 so his first bid was not valid
and was not recorded in the list of bids. Even though his bid didn't
count, the eBay computer assigns him as Bidder 1.
Bidder 5 could be a shill bidder as he incrementally raised
the price till it got to $3000.
I think bidder 5 was ok in that stretch. He had placed a maximum bid in
the vicinity of $3000 when he won the bidding at $2200. Then some other
bidder, bidder 6, 7, or 8, placed a series of bids that were all less
than bidder 5's maximum. That's how bidder 5 might show with that
string of bids.
When bidder 8 realized his bid was the same
as bidder 6's, after a little deliberation he raised his and is now on top
by the correct bid increment. At this point we do not know bidder 8's
highest bid (known as his proxy bid), and maybe we never will. Maybe he only
bid $4050 exactly to outbid bidder 6. You not only have to see the bid
amounts, you have to look when they were placed also.
When bidder 5 had the highest bid of $3000 on Apr 25 at 19:31:08 he must
have had a maximum bid somewhere in the range of $3000-4000. A couple of
days later bidders 6 and 8 place bids and wind up in a tie with bidder 6
winning. How did this happen?
Bidder 6's bid of $4000 shows a date of Apr 22. If he actually placed a
max of $4000 on Apr 22, all those other bids wouldn't be listed between
Apr 22 and Apr 23. Bidder 6 would have had the highest bid every time a
new bid was placed less than $4000.
If bidder 8 bids first after the $3000 wouldn't he show up as winning
with a bid of $3050, or bidder 5 would win again because his max was
higher, or bidder 8 wins with some number a bit greater than bidder 5's
max? If bidder 6 bids first, same thing.
So maybe bidders 6 and 8 both place maximum bids of $4000 on the 25th at
a time so close that they are both processed together. Seems unlikely.
Bidder 6 wins because he place a bid earlier in the auction, I guess.
But why does his bid show up backdated to Apr 22? Maybe it is an attempt
to explain to bidder 8 why he isn't at the top of the list, but it
confuses me more.
None of this really matters, because bidding continues, but that tie bid
still makes no real sense to me. I wasn't even bidding, so I guess I'll
stop worrying about it.
There is still over a
day to go, so, who knows where it may wind up. So far every bid that you see
is the maximum amount placed by a given bidder at the time shown, except for
bidder 8. Regards - Mike
Mike B. Feher, N4FS
89 Arnold Blvd.
Howell, NJ, 07731
732-886-5960
-----Original Message-----
From: time-nuts-bounces@febo.com [mailto:time-nuts-bounces@febo.com] On
Behalf Of Rex
Sent: Thursday, April 26, 2007 8:23 AM
To: Discussion of precise time and frequency measurement
Subject: Re: [time-nuts] OT: eBay bidding question
On Thu, 26 Apr 2007 11:29:38 +0100, "Robert Atkinson"
robert.atkinson@genetix.com wrote:
Hi Rex,
It's quite simple when you get used to it.
The list is ordered in bid value, highest at the top.
If two bids are for the same amount, the one that was placed first takes
precedence (and wins if they are at the top at auction end).
This is why bidder 6 is at the top, he bid on the 22nd, before bidder 8
on the 25th. Bidder numbers are time sequential.
The other issue is proxy bidding, Bidder 6's bid would only have shown 1
bid increment (about $10 in this case) above the next lowest bidder
until his limit was reached ($4000). If he had bid $4000.01 (or bidder 8
had bid $3999.99) there would have been no confusion. This is why some
bidders put an odd few pence (cents) at the end of their bid.
HTH.
Robert.
Yes, I understand the basic principle, but how can we explain the
sequences and what bids remain recorded?
Surely Bidder 1 was alone at the start of bidding. So Bidder 2 outbid
him with a bid of $250 or more. Why did the first bid disappear? Maybe
there was a reserve? Then I guess Bidders 1 and 2 swapped bids. Ok,
those values got saved for some reason. Bidder 3 doesn't show before
bidder 4. Does he become bidder 3 even if he looses to bidder 2? How
come Bidder 6 doesn't show up until the very end? He must have been
involved at some point between bidder 5 on the 21st and bidder 7 on the
23rd. Say bidder 6 had a max bid of 4000 and that's why we see him
winning at the end. Then why does bidder 5 have that string of recorded
bids. Bidder 6 should have won all those bids.
If bidder 8 places a bid with a max of 4000 on the 25th and then bidder
6 responds with another bid of 4000 he wins because he had a lost bid
earlier. That surely can't be. Or bidder 6 places a max bid of 4000
after 3000 from bidder 5 so he is winning with 3010 then bidder 8 bids a
max of 4000. Bidder 6 wins the tie because he has a history. I guess it
could be, but the recorded date of Apr 22 for the 4k bid would be wrong.
Actually I guess this newish way of listing as bidder 1, 2, ... conveys
more information than if it was just user names.
I'm sure there must be a sequence that explains what is listed but I
can't quite see it all.
Can anyone propose a sequence of bids on dates that explains this list
of recorded bids and dates? I guess there must be one but it is evading
me.
*Bidder* Bid Amount Date of bid
Bidder 6 US $4,000.00 Apr-22-07 05:14:15
Bidder 8 US $4,000.00 Apr-25-07 00:49:30
Bidder 5 US $3,000.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:08
Bidder 5 US $2,900.00 Apr-23-07 19:31:00
Bidder 5 US $2,800.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:50
Bidder 5 US $2,700.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:42
Bidder 5 US $2,500.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:32
Bidder 5 US $2,200.00 Apr-23-07 19:30:25
Bidder 7 US $2,050.00 Apr-23-07 00:33:36
Bidder 5 US $2,000.00 Apr-21-07 21:21:05
Bidder 3 US $1,250.50 Apr-21-07 17:19:52
Bidder 4 US $1,111.00 Apr-21-07 17:38:42
Bidder 2 US $559.00 Apr-21-07 16:39:08
Bidder 1 US $365.00 Apr-20-07 21:33:10
Bidder 2 US $250.00 Apr-21-07 16:38:56
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One thing not mentioned yet re bidding,
if no bid is lodged the seller is free to withdraw before the end.
This would be sensible for a $4000 item if it is only at $5 just
before the end.
So a sniper may lose out because it never gets to the sale.
It is best to put some bid on it even if you want to delay your last
bid.
Neville Michie
On 4/26/07, Rex rexa@sonic.net wrote:
First, here are my assumptions.
Read the documentation about bidding...
http://pages.ebay.com/help/buy/bidding-ov.html
http://pages.ebay.com/help/buy/proxy-bidding.html
http://pages.ebay.com/help/buy/outbid-ov.html
http://pages.ebay.com/help/buy/bidding_change_bid.html
http://pages.ebay.com/help/buy/buyer-auction.html
http://answercenter.ebay.com/forum.jspa?forumID=7
On Fri, Apr 27, 2007 at 10:33:30AM +1000, Neville Michie wrote:
One thing not mentioned yet re bidding,
if no bid is lodged the seller is free to withdraw before the end.
This would be sensible for a $4000 item if it is only at $5 just
before the end.
So a sniper may lose out because it never gets to the sale.
It is best to put some bid on it even if you want to delay your last
bid.
This is true, the seller can withdraw if there are no bids or
modify the description, minimums etc... and some sellers do this if
they think the lack of bids indicates a probable very low price.
However, the seller takes the risk doing this that there are one
or more smart folks lurking in the background prepared to snipe. Most
auctions I participate in have at least two snipe or near-snipe bids at
least 30% and sometimes 200-300% higher than the total three or four
minutes before the close. So a seller withdraws at his peril. And I
have seen auctions where snipe bids appear raising the price from 5% of
market to 200% of market in the last 3 seconds.
Smart folks snipe. Period. There is no other (legal and
ethical) strategy more favorable to the buyer - particularly if sniping
is possible and practiced.
The danger in putting in a low placeholder bid is that this
alerts folks who might be prepared to snipe that there is at least one
competitor and they really have to go as high as they possibly can.
Human nature makes this hard (if you value your wallet) as it is easy to
push a little less aggressively on the max if you think there is nobody
else there - EVEN on a snipe bid against other snipe bidders.
And depending on the minimum bid (whether it is over $200) under
the new Ebay rules (and ALWAYS under the old rules) one's identity may
be disclosed as the temporary high bidder. This allows ones competition
to figure out a guess as to what one might ultimately bid based on
previous behavior (which can be found through the Ebay search functions
by searching by bidder screen name for bid and win histories and what
kind of items that screen name buys and sells from that screen name's
feedback history). Again this may cause the competition to raise their
bid, which of course costs one of you more depending on who bids the
most.
And at the very least the bidder screen name and its associated
history may be a clue as to whether there is another serious bidder
looking at the item or just a bottom fisher who never bids more than way
below market on anything.
Certainly bids by someone known to be expert on some type of
item or from a savvy dealer who knows values are a good clue that the
item in question is worth buying - thus if you spot something good and
are known as someone who knows what is good and what is junk you put
down a placeholder bid at your peril as it may alert lurkers to the fact
the listing is or might be worth bidding on.
As for the auction bidding that confused some folks here - I
find the listing of bids pretty obvious to me... with nothing confusing
at all.
At the risk of boring those who understand Ebay:
Bidder 1 bid $365 max on 4/20 at 21:33:18. Pretty obviously this
was over the minimum, not clear if there was a reserve or not.
Bidder 2 bid $250 (which meant he was never the high bidder) on
4/21 at 16:38:56. This meant the price listed for the item went to
$250 plus the bid increment around $250 or something like $252.50 with
bidder 1 still listed as winning.
Bidder 2, realizing he was not winning, then immediately bid
$559.00 12 seconds later and became the high bidder at $367.50 or
thereabouts.
He remained the high bidder until bidder number 3 bid $1250.50
at 4/21 17:19:52. This made bidder 3 high bidder with a something like
$564 price listed until bidder #4 came along about 20 minutes later and
bid $1111.00. At this point the price went up to $1131.00 or so with
bidder #3 still listed as winning the auction.
About 4 hours later at 4/21 21:21:05 bidder 5 came along and bid
$2000.00. This made him high bidder with a price near $1270.50 listed.
Then about 8 hours later bidder 6 (the winner in the listing so
far) came along and bid $4000.00. This meant he was listed as the
winner (and remained so continuously from then onward) at a price around
$2040.00.
Some time after that at 4/23 00:33:36 bidder 7 bid $2050.00
which did not make him leader, but raised the price to $2090.00 or
thereabouts.
And then at what appears to be two days later for bidder 5,
bidder 5 apparently decided to try to find out what the max was (set by
bidder 6 at $4000, but presumably not known to bidder 5). At 4/23
19:30:25 he bid $2200 which didn't win, then $2500 which didn't win at
19:30:32, and $2700 at 19:30:42 and then $2800 at 19:30:50 and $2900 at
19:31:00 and finally gave up at $3000 at 19:31:80. At the end of this
the price listed was $3060 or thereabouts with bidder 6 still listed as
the winner.
This sort of bidding COULD be shill bidding, but more probably
was someone trying to figure out what bidder 6 was bidding so he could
decide whether to give up on the auction or not.
Finally at 4/25 00:49:30 bidder 8 bid the exact same $4000.00
that bidder 6 bid earlier (leaving bidder 6 the winner). Ebay's
bidding algorithm allows and registers this bid - after all $4000 IS
more than the listed price of $3060 by MORE than the bid increment so it
is a perfectly legal bid even if not a winning one. And if bidder 8 had
bid $4000.01 he would be the winner in this auction so far... thus it is
always wise to bid just a few pennies beyond some canonical number like
$4000 that might be someone's max. The current price (if this is not a
completed auction yet) should be listed at $4080 or thereabouts.
(The thereabouts in my discussion represents laziness on my part
in that I have not bothered to look up the exact bid increment values
Ebay uses at these various price levels and what the boundaries are
between the various increment bands).
Now back to GPSDOs and Rubidiums - does anyone know whether the
Ebay special FEI programmable DDS Rbs are all the same (the Israeli
dealer and the TN dealer selling the same thing ?). They appear to
contain a PIC and I wonder if the code in it is the same for all of them ?
--
Dave Emery N1PRE, die@dieconsulting.com DIE Consulting, Weston, Mass 02493
"An empty zombie mind with a forlorn barely readable weatherbeaten
'For Rent' sign still vainly flapping outside on the weed encrusted pole - in
celebration of what could have been, but wasn't and is not to be now either."