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Dodging Storms

MM
Mike Maurice
Fri, Dec 12, 2008 9:45 PM

I would not get complacent about being able to dogdge storms just
because you can make 20 knots. You many recall that although many of the
container ships are over 800 feet in length and can easily run at 20
knots, the record of their tangling with storms is not reassuring.

Don't jump to the conclusion that I am disagreeing with Steve Dashew and
others that speeds in the 12 knot range are not useful for dodging
storms. Rather, my point is that a few trips around the world does not
make anyone all knowing or that those who would emulate such tactics are
necessarily as skilled at the tactics as the actually practitioners.

In other words, don't jump to the conclusion that you can emulate
another man's tricks, unless you know all the details and even then
there is likely to be some context that you are missing out on. Caution
is generally the best course and boldness is only practical for the
survivors.

Mike


Capt. Mike Maurice
Tigard Oregon(Near Portland)

I would not get complacent about being able to dogdge storms just because you can make 20 knots. You many recall that although many of the container ships are over 800 feet in length and can easily run at 20 knots, the record of their tangling with storms is not reassuring. Don't jump to the conclusion that I am disagreeing with Steve Dashew and others that speeds in the 12 knot range are not useful for dodging storms. Rather, my point is that a few trips around the world does not make anyone all knowing or that those who would emulate such tactics are necessarily as skilled at the tactics as the actually practitioners. In other words, don't jump to the conclusion that you can emulate another man's tricks, unless you know all the details and even then there is likely to be some context that you are missing out on. Caution is generally the best course and boldness is only practical for the survivors. Mike _____________________________________ Capt. Mike Maurice Tigard Oregon(Near Portland)
JH
John Harris
Fri, Dec 12, 2008 9:57 PM

I'm strongly with Mike.  The idea of avoiding heavy weather is fine on a
long trip.  Sometimes changing course a few degrees can avoid a storm but
the idea of ALWAYS being able to "see it coming" and changing course is an
illusion.  In time it becomes clear that you are in deep trouble without a
vessel and equipment that will allow you to withstand a storm.

John Harris

I'm strongly with Mike. The idea of avoiding heavy weather is fine on a long trip. Sometimes changing course a few degrees can avoid a storm but the idea of ALWAYS being able to "see it coming" and changing course is an illusion. In time it becomes clear that you are in deep trouble without a vessel and equipment that will allow you to withstand a storm. John Harris
KW
Ken Williams
Fri, Dec 12, 2008 10:07 PM

Mike Maurice:

I was going to ask you this offline, but thought others might be curious
about your response... so I'm asking you on-list.

Scott Bulger mentioned this weekend that you recently did the run across the
Aleutians and the Bering Sea. I'll be doing this run "backwards" (west to
east) next July.

What month did you make the run? How bad was it? Can you describe your
route? (north of the Aleutians?) How rough do you think we'll have it? Any
advice for me?

-Ken Williams
Sans Souci, Nordhavn 68

Mike Maurice: I was going to ask you this offline, but thought others might be curious about your response... so I'm asking you on-list. Scott Bulger mentioned this weekend that you recently did the run across the Aleutians and the Bering Sea. I'll be doing this run "backwards" (west to east) next July. What month did you make the run? How bad was it? Can you describe your route? (north of the Aleutians?) How rough do you think we'll have it? Any advice for me? -Ken Williams Sans Souci, Nordhavn 68
EW
Ed White
Fri, Dec 12, 2008 11:44 PM

Hey Ken,
I'm going to the NY Boat show tomorrow and two of the captains from
Deadliest Catch are going to be there.  I'll ask them for you!!

Best regards,
Ed White
Whitecap III

-----Original Message-----
From: passagemaking-under-power-bounces@lists.samurai.com
[mailto:passagemaking-under-power-bounces@lists.samurai.com] On Behalf Of
Ken Williams
Sent: Friday, December 12, 2008 5:08 PM
To: 'Passagemaking Under Power List'
Subject: [PUP] Bering Sea

Mike Maurice:

I was going to ask you this offline, but thought others might be curious
about your response... so I'm asking you on-list.

Scott Bulger mentioned this weekend that you recently did the run across the
Aleutians and the Bering Sea. I'll be doing this run "backwards" (west to
east) next July.

What month did you make the run? How bad was it? Can you describe your
route? (north of the Aleutians?) How rough do you think we'll have it? Any
advice for me?

-Ken Williams
Sans Souci, Nordhavn 68


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Hey Ken, I'm going to the NY Boat show tomorrow and two of the captains from Deadliest Catch are going to be there. I'll ask them for you!! Best regards, Ed White Whitecap III -----Original Message----- From: passagemaking-under-power-bounces@lists.samurai.com [mailto:passagemaking-under-power-bounces@lists.samurai.com] On Behalf Of Ken Williams Sent: Friday, December 12, 2008 5:08 PM To: 'Passagemaking Under Power List' Subject: [PUP] Bering Sea Mike Maurice: I was going to ask you this offline, but thought others might be curious about your response... so I'm asking you on-list. Scott Bulger mentioned this weekend that you recently did the run across the Aleutians and the Bering Sea. I'll be doing this run "backwards" (west to east) next July. What month did you make the run? How bad was it? Can you describe your route? (north of the Aleutians?) How rough do you think we'll have it? Any advice for me? -Ken Williams Sans Souci, Nordhavn 68 _______________________________________________ http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/listinfo/passagemaking-under-power To unsubscribe send email to passagemaking-under-power-request@lists.samurai.com with the word UNSUBSCRIBE and nothing else in the subject or body of the message. Passagemaking Under Power and PUP are trademarks of Water World Productions, formerly known as Trawler World Productions.
BT
Bob Taylor
Sat, Dec 13, 2008 12:07 AM

In all my experience in dealing with storms at sea (which is not that much), I have found the best way to avoid them is to fly... if you're in a small craft you will experience bad weather no matter how fast you are. That's part of it. Be prepared and have a good stout boat.

Bob Taylor
Istaboa


From: John Harris JohnPH@Comcast.net
To: Passagemaking Under Power List passagemaking-under-power@lists.samurai.com
Sent: Friday, December 12, 2008 3:57:11 PM
Subject: Re: [PUP] Dodging Storms

I'm strongly with Mike.  The idea of avoiding heavy weather is fine on a
long trip.  Sometimes changing course a few degrees can avoid a storm but
the idea of ALWAYS being able to "see it coming" and changing course is an
illusion.  In time it becomes clear that you are in deep trouble without a
vessel and equipment that will allow you to withstand a storm.

John Harris


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Passagemaking Under Power and PUP are trademarks of Water World Productions, formerly known as Trawler World Productions.

In all my experience in dealing with storms at sea (which is not that much), I have found the best way to avoid them is to fly... if you're in a small craft you will experience bad weather no matter how fast you are. That's part of it. Be prepared and have a good stout boat. Bob Taylor Istaboa ________________________________ From: John Harris <JohnPH@Comcast.net> To: Passagemaking Under Power List <passagemaking-under-power@lists.samurai.com> Sent: Friday, December 12, 2008 3:57:11 PM Subject: Re: [PUP] Dodging Storms I'm strongly with Mike. The idea of avoiding heavy weather is fine on a long trip. Sometimes changing course a few degrees can avoid a storm but the idea of ALWAYS being able to "see it coming" and changing course is an illusion. In time it becomes clear that you are in deep trouble without a vessel and equipment that will allow you to withstand a storm. John Harris _______________________________________________ http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/listinfo/passagemaking-under-power To unsubscribe send email to passagemaking-under-power-request@lists.samurai.com with the word UNSUBSCRIBE and nothing else in the subject or body of the message. Passagemaking Under Power and PUP are trademarks of Water World Productions, formerly known as Trawler World Productions.
DB
DIANNE BOSTON
Sun, Dec 14, 2008 5:27 AM

Dodging storms is poppy cock, you can try and in some cases you may get
lucky but lets face it, any sort of bad weather will be travelling at no
less than 35 knots and who knows how many miles wide. I would prefer to have
a vessel that will handle bad weather and come safely out the other side,
than something that I must always be trying to out run bad weather when it
turns up, unexpected as it usually does. If you know of a passagemaker that
will run in heavy weather at more than 35 knots please let me know and I'll
buy it.
Rick

Dodging storms is poppy cock, you can try and in some cases you may get lucky but lets face it, any sort of bad weather will be travelling at no less than 35 knots and who knows how many miles wide. I would prefer to have a vessel that will handle bad weather and come safely out the other side, than something that I must always be trying to out run bad weather when it turns up, unexpected as it usually does. If you know of a passagemaker that will run in heavy weather at more than 35 knots please let me know and I'll buy it. Rick
JM
John Marshall
Sun, Dec 14, 2008 7:03 AM

If you read Dashew's posts in detail, you'll see that with modern
forecasting (assuming a 72 hour forecast) and the willingness to
change course without concern for distance made good along original
track, and speed in the 11 to 12 knot range, you can avoid the really
dangerous stuff (over sustained 55 to 60 knots wind). He's got a whole
strategy around weather avoidance that has been refined over something
like a half a million miles of cruising. At 7 to 8 knots, you can't
always avoid a named storm if it pops up when you're in the middle of
the Pacific.

Of course you still have to work your way through fresh and whole
gales (maybe 40+ knots and 20+ foot waves), that's why he installs
aerobatic harnesses in the seats to eliminate crew fatigue (which is
what really gets well-founded boats in trouble). And he's got a boat
that's better at handling severe weather than probably any other
passagemaker afloat.

Of course, if a hurricane/typhoon is coming right down your throat,
you have to make a left/right 90 degree choice, and not sure what way
its going to turn. But with his kind of speed, you can make about 280
miles a day at right angles to the storm's projected path. That's 860
miles in the three day forecast window, and enough to get out of the a
hurricane 3 day path probability envelope of the highest winds. That,
of course, requires you to have a lot of extra range, and the
willingness and preparation to ride out the storm on the periphery,
maybe Force 8 stuff as opposed to trying to duck into some port (which
is even more dangerous).

The fatalistic approach of assuming you can't avoid the weather and
believing that you and your super-duper boat can ride out a hurricane
or typhoon with its 40 or 50 foot waves is simply a recipe for
disaster. Even a Force 10 with its 30 foot waves will quickly disable
the crew due to fatigue and seasickness, even if the boat is still
floating.

John

On Dec 13, 2008, at 9:27 PM, DIANNE BOSTON wrote:

Dodging storms is poppy cock, you can try and in some cases you may
get
lucky but lets face it, any sort of bad weather will be travelling
at no
less than 35 knots and who knows how many miles wide. I would prefer
to have
a vessel that will handle bad weather and come safely out the other
side,
than something that I must always be trying to out run bad weather
when it
turns up, unexpected as it usually does. If you know of a
passagemaker that
will run in heavy weather at more than 35 knots please let me know
and I'll
buy it.
Rick


http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/listinfo/passagemaking-under-power

To unsubscribe send email to
passagemaking-under-power-request@lists.samurai.com with the word
UNSUBSCRIBE and nothing else in the subject or body of the message.

Passagemaking Under Power and PUP are trademarks of Water World
Productions, formerly known as Trawler World Productions.

If you read Dashew's posts in detail, you'll see that with modern forecasting (assuming a 72 hour forecast) and the willingness to change course without concern for distance made good along original track, and speed in the 11 to 12 knot range, you can avoid the really dangerous stuff (over sustained 55 to 60 knots wind). He's got a whole strategy around weather avoidance that has been refined over something like a half a million miles of cruising. At 7 to 8 knots, you can't always avoid a named storm if it pops up when you're in the middle of the Pacific. Of course you still have to work your way through fresh and whole gales (maybe 40+ knots and 20+ foot waves), that's why he installs aerobatic harnesses in the seats to eliminate crew fatigue (which is what really gets well-founded boats in trouble). And he's got a boat that's better at handling severe weather than probably any other passagemaker afloat. Of course, if a hurricane/typhoon is coming right down your throat, you have to make a left/right 90 degree choice, and not sure what way its going to turn. But with his kind of speed, you can make about 280 miles a day at right angles to the storm's projected path. That's 860 miles in the three day forecast window, and enough to get out of the a hurricane 3 day path probability envelope of the highest winds. That, of course, requires you to have a lot of extra range, and the willingness and preparation to ride out the storm on the periphery, maybe Force 8 stuff as opposed to trying to duck into some port (which is even more dangerous). The fatalistic approach of assuming you can't avoid the weather and believing that you and your super-duper boat can ride out a hurricane or typhoon with its 40 or 50 foot waves is simply a recipe for disaster. Even a Force 10 with its 30 foot waves will quickly disable the crew due to fatigue and seasickness, even if the boat is still floating. John On Dec 13, 2008, at 9:27 PM, DIANNE BOSTON wrote: > Dodging storms is poppy cock, you can try and in some cases you may > get > lucky but lets face it, any sort of bad weather will be travelling > at no > less than 35 knots and who knows how many miles wide. I would prefer > to have > a vessel that will handle bad weather and come safely out the other > side, > than something that I must always be trying to out run bad weather > when it > turns up, unexpected as it usually does. If you know of a > passagemaker that > will run in heavy weather at more than 35 knots please let me know > and I'll > buy it. > Rick > _______________________________________________ > http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/listinfo/passagemaking-under-power > > To unsubscribe send email to > passagemaking-under-power-request@lists.samurai.com with the word > UNSUBSCRIBE and nothing else in the subject or body of the message. > > Passagemaking Under Power and PUP are trademarks of Water World > Productions, formerly known as Trawler World Productions.
RR
Ron Rogers
Sun, Dec 14, 2008 7:50 PM

Well Ed, were you able to speak with them and which ones were they?

Ron Rogers

-----Original Message-----
From: Ed White

Hey Ken,
I'm going to the NY Boat show tomorrow and two of the captains from
Deadliest Catch are going to be there.  I'll ask them for you!!

Best regards,
Ed White
Whitecap III

Well Ed, were you able to speak with them and which ones were they? Ron Rogers -----Original Message----- From: Ed White Hey Ken, I'm going to the NY Boat show tomorrow and two of the captains from Deadliest Catch are going to be there. I'll ask them for you!! Best regards, Ed White Whitecap III
EW
Ed White
Sun, Dec 14, 2008 9:11 PM

For all who asked...

The Captains Hillstrand (John and Andy) were probably the longest line at
the boat show.  I just couldn't devote over an hour in line for the
opportunity.  From what I saw, they were interacting with each visitor and
enjoying their "fame".  I wish I could have bought them a beer!

I have been going to the NY boat show since I was 8, which is quite a few
years astern o'me.  This one was lackluster.  Even the gadget section was
mediocre.  There were two gadgets that caught my eye.  One was the gyroscope
stabilizer at only $70K, and the other was the KVH dome size 9.  I said to
my buddy, "Oh to have the financial wherewithal to need a dome that size!"
One final observation; will somebody tell these "boat" builders that you
don't need 5 flat panel TVs on a 38 foot boat!!

Best regards to all and a Merry Christmas!

Godspeed

Ed White
Whitecap III

-----Original Message-----
From: passagemaking-under-power-bounces+epw=enetsys.net@lists.samurai.com
[mailto:passagemaking-under-power-bounces+epw=enetsys.net@lists.samurai.com]
On Behalf Of Ron Rogers
Sent: Sunday, December 14, 2008 2:51 PM
To: 'Passagemaking Under Power List'
Subject: Re: [PUP] Bering Sea

Well Ed, were you able to speak with them and which ones were they?

Ron Rogers

-----Original Message-----
From: Ed White

Hey Ken,
I'm going to the NY Boat show tomorrow and two of the captains from
Deadliest Catch are going to be there.  I'll ask them for you!!

Best regards,
Ed White
Whitecap III


http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/listinfo/passagemaking-under-power

To unsubscribe send email to
passagemaking-under-power-request@lists.samurai.com with the word
UNSUBSCRIBE and nothing else in the subject or body of the message.

Passagemaking Under Power and PUP are trademarks of Water World Productions,
formerly known as Trawler World Productions.

For all who asked... The Captains Hillstrand (John and Andy) were probably the longest line at the boat show. I just couldn't devote over an hour in line for the opportunity. From what I saw, they were interacting with each visitor and enjoying their "fame". I wish I could have bought them a beer! I have been going to the NY boat show since I was 8, which is quite a few years astern o'me. This one was lackluster. Even the gadget section was mediocre. There were two gadgets that caught my eye. One was the gyroscope stabilizer at only $70K, and the other was the KVH dome size 9. I said to my buddy, "Oh to have the financial wherewithal to need a dome that size!" One final observation; will somebody tell these "boat" builders that you don't need 5 flat panel TVs on a 38 foot boat!! Best regards to all and a Merry Christmas! Godspeed Ed White Whitecap III -----Original Message----- From: passagemaking-under-power-bounces+epw=enetsys.net@lists.samurai.com [mailto:passagemaking-under-power-bounces+epw=enetsys.net@lists.samurai.com] On Behalf Of Ron Rogers Sent: Sunday, December 14, 2008 2:51 PM To: 'Passagemaking Under Power List' Subject: Re: [PUP] Bering Sea Well Ed, were you able to speak with them and which ones were they? Ron Rogers -----Original Message----- From: Ed White Hey Ken, I'm going to the NY Boat show tomorrow and two of the captains from Deadliest Catch are going to be there. I'll ask them for you!! Best regards, Ed White Whitecap III _______________________________________________ http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/listinfo/passagemaking-under-power To unsubscribe send email to passagemaking-under-power-request@lists.samurai.com with the word UNSUBSCRIBE and nothing else in the subject or body of the message. Passagemaking Under Power and PUP are trademarks of Water World Productions, formerly known as Trawler World Productions.