I have been watching the Grib files for the Caribbean for the last few days waiting for them to get on board and show Hurricane Dean.....so far they show nothing higher than a gale :-( We have noticed this in the past to an extent however this is scary to think that they are so far in error as to be dangerous in their inaccuracy for storms like this. Is anyone else seeing this or am I alone here? Dave & Nancy Swan Song Roughwater 58

>> We have noticed this in the past to an extent however this is scary to >> think that they are so far in error as to be dangerous in their >> inaccuracy for storms like this. >> Is anyone else seeing this or am I alone here? ============================ I have just looked at the Caribbean area and it shows a maximum wind of 45 knots, this is a MAJOR difference than the 140 MPH that the weather channel is predicting. This seems like a useless weather resource. John Harris World Odd @ Sea

I was once told by a meteorologist that the GRIB files come out of one of the weather models (don't recall which one), but that there are other models (4 or 5 I believe). Meteorologists pick the model that their experience tells them best fits, or use averages or consensus models to produce their forecasts. As in, human intelligence and judgement are involved. I've found that GRIB's tend to match conditions I've experienced on the west coast under steady state conditions, or when large Pacific fronts that can be forecast many days in advance are approaching. I believe Hurricane forecasting is a whole other game. Signing up for the automatic email updates on the hurricane prediction center give you the latest and best. But no pretty graphics. John Marshall N5520-Serendipity On Aug 19, 2007, at 4:23 PM, John Harris wrote: >>> We have noticed this in the past to an extent however this is >>> scary to >>> think that they are so far in error as to be dangerous in their >>> inaccuracy for storms like this. > >>> Is anyone else seeing this or am I alone here? > ============================ > > I have just looked at the Caribbean area and it shows a maximum > wind of 45 > knots, this is a MAJOR difference than the 140 MPH that the weather > channel > is predicting. > > This seems like a useless weather resource. > > John Harris > World Odd @ Sea > _______________________________________________ > http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/listinfo/passagemaking-under-power > > To unsubscribe send email to > passagemaking-under-power-request@lists.samurai.com with the word > UNSUBSCRIBE and nothing else in the subject or body of the message. > > Passagemaking Under Power and PUP are trademarks of Water World > Productions, formerly known as Trawler World Productions.