I agree also, having closely monitored the bowling balls coming off Cape Verde in summer and the November gales off the US East Coast. Mitch and Lenny fooled the experts and the supercomputers. In 1998, Fantome, a 280' steel windjammer succumbed to Mitch with all hands despite many days attempting to run away based upon erroneous forecasts. Lenny, born in 1999 in the Western Caribbean, became a H near Jamaica and continued "backwards" to the Eastern Caribbean and stalled, thrashing St Martin and the VI for days. Simpson Bay lagoon, long thought to be a safe hurricane hole, became a maelstrom of drifting and sunken yachts. 2004 saw many cruisers sitting in bays along Grenada's south coast, watching the forecast and debating whether they should run south to Trinidad. The prediction each day was for Ivan to "turn to the northwest," but it didn't happen and all of a sudden the seas were huge, it was impossible to leave, and the most dangerous quadrant laid waste to Grenada and most of it's boats. In '98, I asked the PO of our sailboat to accompany us from Florida to the Leewards, saying we'd wait in Ft. Pierce for a weather window. His retort was something like, "Why wait? Let's just set a date and go... we're bound to get bad weather along the way anyway." Regards, John "Seahorse" > I'm strongly with Mike. The idea of avoiding heavy weather is fine on a long trip. Sometimes changing course a few degrees can avoid a storm but the idea of ALWAYS being able to "see it coming" and changing course is an illusion. In time it becomes clear that you are in deep trouble without a vessel and equipment that will allow you to withstand a storm. **************Make your life easier with all your friends, email, and favorite sites in one place. Try it now. (http://www.aol.com/?optin=new-dp&icid=aolcom40vanity&ncid=emlcntaolcom00000010)