Okay when will the overload of warblers occur this year? Any guesses for East Rock park and other areas? I think there should be a BIG SIT type event at the peak of dawn chorus spring days. Maybe even just a big sit two hour period, from 1/2 hour before darkness starts breaking until 1 hour after sunrise. A sort of listen only event. Suppose it has been done. But please give predictions on peaks.

--- Kevin <ktjensen@yahoo.com> wrote: > Okay when will the overload of warblers occur this > year? Any guesses for East Rock park and other areas? In May. > I think there should be a BIG SIT type event at the > peak of dawn chorus spring days. Maybe even just a > big sit two hour period, from 1/2 hour before darkness > starts breaking until 1 hour after sunrise. > A sort of listen only event. So just do it! > Suppose it has been done. But please give predictions > on peaks. Sometimes, the night before a good morning, it is possible to predict that the next day will be very good. Occasionally it is possible to anticipate the possibility a few days before that. Beyond that the most that can be said is what weeks have in the past been good. For what it is worth, for years I took the second week of May as vacation time for birding locally and was generally satisfied by my choice. Sometimes a really good day came before that, other times I really wished I had taken off the third week instead (or in addition). It all depends on the weather. Not just the weather on a particular day (or more importantly, night), but the weather over a period. Not just if it rained, but which way the wind was blowing when it didn't rain. Nick Bonomo posted a message about radar tracking of the migration that is a good place to start to try to understand all that. Lets look at last year, concentrating on East Rock Park. It was not particularly typical, but then no year is typical. These numbers are total warbler species known to have been seen by everyone over the entire day. No one person had all of them, and no one spot at East Rock had all of them. Such totals always require birding down by the river AND up on the top. May 3 - 12 to 14 species of warblers May 4 - 12 species of warblers May 5 - 20 species of warblers May 6 - 20 species of warblers May 7: 16 species of warblers May 8 to 12: no counts! May 13: 20 species of warblers May 14: 18 species of warblers May 15: 20 species of warblers >From that point on there were no counts reported from East Rock, but we started getting them from other places: May 17 Bridgeport, Veterans Park - 16 species of warblers May 19 White Memorial -- 17 species of warblers May 20 Lyme, Nehantic SF -- 18 species of warblers May 24 Madison, Hammonasset State Park -- 18 species of warblers May 25 West Hartford, Route 44 powerlines -- 16 species of warblers Madison, Hammonasset State Park -- 16 species of warblers Stratford, Great Meadows -- 15 species of warblers May 26 West Hartford, Route 44 powerlines -- 16 species of warblers Another way to look at it is in terms of how well big days do. The ABA records for top ten big days in Connecticut are all in May. The days of the month are, respectively: 20, 19, 18, 19, 17, 21, 22, 18, 18 and 18. And note that NJAS schedules the World Series of Birding for the middle weekend of May (May 12 this year). Good birding! Roy Harvey Beacon Falls, CT