Re: T&T: $100 + a barrel!
Doom and gloom, doom and gloom. Are powerful trawlers likely to follow the
dinosaurs into extinction?
Take an example from the automotive field. In the UK after WW2 the size of
automobiles started increasing just as in the USA. Fuel resources were limited
and the price of petrol started to rise. But it was not until the price reached
the equivalent of $4 per US gallon that consumers started demanding more
efficient cars.
Auto companies that failed to respond lost market share and either were sold
to foreign interests or went out of business altogether. The list includes
Rolls Royce, Daimler, Jaguar, Rover, Rootes Motors (Austin, MG), Humber and
numerous others. Virtually all British automobiles on the road today are imports or
made by non-British owned companies.
We are on track to follow the British example. Yesterday oil prices hit a
record peak. Gasoline is above $3 a gallon in most areas. Sales of larger cars
have declined. The current 20 year old CAFE of 27.5 mpg, with its numerous
exemptions, insures the continuation of the manufacture of fuel guzzling behemoths
which clog dealer's lots and the revised CAFE standard of 35 mpg will not
phase in until 2020. Without an automobile industry change in it's collective mind
set, drivers will opt for more economical foreign imports, even luxury
imports. Not to worry, the laid off Detroit auto workers can always get jobs in the
housing industry. Along with unemployed State Department officials as we turn
over control of our foreign policy to our Arab oil suppliers.
Will it happen with trawlers? A cursory survey of local fuel depots on the
Hudson show that the price of a gallon of diesel is nudging $4 a gallon, with
expectations that it may be as high as $5 by next summer. My neighbor's pride
and joy is a 46 foot motor yacht with twin Cummins diesels. Last summer he
bragged that he had a fuel economy of two miles a gallon at cruising speed. By my
calculation, his biannual trip down the ICW to Florida and return may soon
incur a fuel cost of $7500.
On the other hand, my sailing friends are chortling with poorly disguised
shadenfreude. Has the worm finally turned?
Larry Z
See AOL's top rated recipes
(http://food.aol.com/top-rated-recipes?NCID=aoltop00030000000004)
Of course on of other side of the coin is he will be left with no options.
His boat will only sell if he takes a major beatting. So in all likelly hood
he'll either bite the bullet and pay or stay home. Of course the same thing
will hit many people even the folks with single screw trawlers. Although the
fuel costs will be less for them, but I wonder if it will be enough to allow
them the option of travel. As far as british cars go there was a whole lot
more then just fuel that killed them. When enough people cut back on the
fuel the price will go back down, not ever to what it was but it will go
back. I really wonder how many people actually get thet much more then two
miles to the gallon as a percentage I don't think there's that many boats
that do that much better. Like my hatt, and a lot of the T.T. trawlers they
have hard chines and I suspect that many times fuel consumption is erred to
the good side. Fuel despite being so very expensive for the boat is just one
of the costs. So like I said you take a twenty or thirty grand bounding
selling your boat to get a more fuel efficent boat or do you just take the
costs in stride and rather then dump the boat write off the fuel cost to the
loss you would have suffered selling the boat. I say slow down to 6kts. plan
the trip the best you can, buy fuel at the best place and buy a very big
crying towel. Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: LRZeitlin@aol.com
To: trawlers-and-trawlering@lists.samurai.com
Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:08 PM
Subject: Re: T&T: $100 + a barrel!
Doom and gloom, doom and gloom. Are powerful trawlers likely to follow the
dinosaurs into extinction?
-----Original Message-----
Doom and gloom, doom and gloom. Are powerful trawlers likely to
follow the dinosaurs into extinction?
snip <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
On the other hand, my sailing friends are chortling with poorly disguised
shadenfreude. Has the worm finally turned?
Larry Z
REPLY
I think the horse power race has finally expired. The lunacy of spec'ing
over sized engines into a boat that can reach hull sped with 1/3 or 1/4 the
installed horse power will become evident to all.
When people realize boats like Idlewild can travel round the world using a
75 HP diesel they should question why builders insist on installing 200,
300, and even 400 HP in the same size hull.
We will probably see a resurgence of interest in motor sailers but of better
design than before. Different hull designs like Power cats will definitely
gain favor due to lower fuel consumption compared to full displacement
heavy trawlers of comparable length.
Designers like George Beuhler, Michael Kasten and Tad Roberts will see
increased interest in their designs because these designs are more fuel
efficient compared to the heavy displacement Nordhavns, Selenes, and Express
Grand Banks.
cheers
Arild
On Jan 3, 2008 12:08 PM, LRZeitlin@aol.com wrote:
On the other hand, my sailing friends are chortling with poorly disguised
shadenfreude.
They may chortle if they will, but that won't alter the fact that they
probably also spend a substantial amount of their boating time under
power. And that time spent actually under sail is often cold, wet,
and 20 degrees off plumb! Schadenfreude it may be, but it's mighty
thin cover in my book! :-)
JG
Hello? JG?
That 20 degrees off plumb is a real bummer! Someone should invent a boat that
stays upright, doesn't rock all night at anchor, has as much room (or more) as
a comparitively sized trawler, has two engines for safety and manuverability,
and can cruise at 6 knots on 1 gal an hour.
Problem is .. what would we call such a marvel?
How about .... catamaran?
best wishes to all for the new year.
Peter
On the other hand, my sailing friends are chortling with poorly disguised>
shadenfreude.> > They may chortle if they will, but that won't alter the
fact that they> probably also spend a substantial amount of their boating time
under> power. And that time spent actually under sail is often cold, wet,> and
20 degrees off plumb! Schadenfreude it may be, but it's mighty> thin cover in
my book! :-)> > JG> _______________________________________________>
http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/listinfo/trawlers-and-trawlering> > To
unsubscribe or modify your subscription options (get password, change email
address, etc) go to:
http://lists.samurai.com/mailman/options/trawlers-and-trawlering> > Trawlers &
Trawlering and T&T are trademarks of Water World> Productions. Unauthorized
use is prohibited.
Use fowl language with Chicktionary. Click here to start playing!
http://puzzles.sympatico.msn.ca/chicktionary/index.html?icid=htmlsig
Of course one possibility is to invest in oil and oil drilling
securities if you have the wherewithal.
The gains in those have more than kept pace with oil prices.
One analysis I saw says that the theoretical price of oil according to
some model and the cost of other energy sources SHOULD be $41/barrel
+- $10.The fact that it is much higher may not hold up in the long
term. A lot of these high prices are due to speculation and MAY not
hold up for the longer term. Another wag stated that it was more
likely that oil will hit $85 rather than $110 .
Take this however you will but the longer term outlook may be for more
moderation rather than a projection of continued increases. In the
short term anything is possible. I am filling up the tanks now while
the price is still closer to $3 than $4. I can last through mid summer
with that in the tank. That is my own personal hedge fund.
--
Greg and Susan Han
Allegria -- Krogen Whaleback #16
I think the American people are just numb at the whole energy price
thing.... someone mentioned inevitable and irresolvable. That pretty much
sums it up, at least in present. Every time the gas prices spike, you see
lots of people join the BMW club... Bitch, Whine and Moan, but they don't do
anything about it on a personal level. I saw a lady awhile back moaning that
she was going to have to hock her diamond ring to pay for gas... well how
many tanks is that gonna get you, lady? What a strategy.
I'll toss out my favorite option... nuclear power. Those plants are sure
looking good right now, and at least the government has started a program to
head down that path. That would make electrical powered vehicles look a lot
better in the big scheme of things, as well as lowering the dependence on
fossil fuels to fire the plants that make electricity.
BTW, my XLE energy select SPDR fund increased over 37% last year. If you
can't beat 'em, join 'em!
Keith
AAAAAA: American Association Against Acronym Abuse and Ambiguity.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Gregory Han" hangreg@gmail.com
Of course one possibility is to invest in oil and oil drilling
securities if you have the wherewithal.
The gains in those have more than kept pace with oil prices.